Words by Mitya Pearson (University of Warwick)
Over two years into a Labour government in the UK, elected with ambitious plans to help cut emissions, are their climate policies here to stay?
A big focus in the academic literature on climate change politics is whether policy initiatives intended to cut emissions can be designed to endure politically over the long term.
Though Andy Burnham seems to have somewhat de-emphasised climate change since entering Downing Street, the Labour Party entered government in the UK in 2024 with ambitious plans to reduce emissions. So, a little over two years into their time in office (approaching the mid-way point of a potential five-year Parliament), it is worth asking how durable their climate initiatives may prove over the long-term. Particularly, as their main political competitors on the right (the Conservatives and Reform UK) have opposed the government’s climate policies so forthrightly.
Policy Feedback and Longevity
For countries to achieve net zero they need to enact policies which will deliver ambitious and rapid emissions reductions over an extended period. If climate policies are constantly chopping and changing (including when governing parties swap after an election) their impact will inevitably be limited.
This is why Paul Pierson’s concept of policy feedback has interested scholars of climate change politics. This idea suggests that not only do policies emerge from political processes, but policies, once implemented, shape politics. Policies create feedback effects which can be positive (for example providing material benefits to important groups of voters) and therefore help sustain or expand the policy, or negative (for example by creating resentment of the policy) and therefore undermine it.
This implies that finding ways to design climate mitigation policies so that they ‘stick’ (i.e. remain politically viable and hard to reverse over the long-term) is an important consideration for both researchers and policymakers.
UK Climate Politics
The Labour Party entered government with substantial plans to help the UK achieve net zero at a time when the broader politics of climate change shifted considerably in Britain. Previously there was a notable cross-party consensus in support of the UK’s climate change targets, which has evaporated as the climate-sceptic Reform UK have become more prominent and the Conservative Party have shifted their approach to the issue. Both parties are committed to repealing the UK’s Climate Change Act.
This means that, based on their current positions, if these parties were to enter government there would be a substantial shift in climate policy. It is therefore important to consider how politically durable the current government’s climate policies may prove, including if they could survive a future change in the governing party.
In order to examine this, I briefly analyse two of the main areas of focus so far for the current government: clean power and fossil fuel extraction.
Clean Power
The 2024 Labour manifesto included a ‘clean power’ mission for low-carbon sources to provide at least 95% of Great Britain’s [electricity] generation by 2030. The government undertook significant early activity to deliver on this ambition including removing constraints on renewable energy infrastructure, for example by relaxing planning restrictions and tackling a backlog in electricity grid connections, committing financial support for expansive renewable energy projects, and upgrading the electricity grid to enable the integration of additional renewables.
There was already scepticism that the actions taken so far by the government would be enough to mean the UK meets the very ambitious aim of 95% clean power by 2030. The arrival of Andy Burnham in Downing Street in July 2026 has also heralded a downgrading in the importance of the clean power target, with the government appearing to have effectively dropped it.
Nonetheless, the actions already taken by this government on clean power seem to have set the UK on a trajectory whereby the proportion of electricity generated by clean sources will be much higher in 2030 than it was in 2024.
Both the Conservatives and Reform have been clear that they would pivot away from renewables if they entered government. So, in such a scenario, future actions to support the deployment of additional renewable electricity generation would almost certainly be diluted or completely off the table.
It seems quite unlikely (though not impossible) that a future Conservative or Reform government would actively dismantle renewable energy projects which have already been built and are generating electricity, given the costs of demolishing them and constructing alternatives.
There is then a middle category of renewable energy projects which could potentially have been contracted for but may not be operational by the time of a future change in government. Reform UK have given mixed signals on whether they would renege on such schemes.
Thus, there are reasons why the government’s actions to achieve a cleaner power system may prove durable. Firstly, renewable energy projects have been supported via Contracts for Difference which is a legal contract. Even if it proves legally possible for a future government to unpick these commitments, which Reform UK has implied that it may try to do, it would be a major step to take given the implications for investor confidence in the UK.
Secondly, as the outgoing head of the UK’s Mission Control for Clean Power has explained, the government initially moved at pace. Very simply, the closer the government gets to its originally stated target of 95% clean power, the more entrenched low carbon generation will be and the likelier it is that a future government will largely accept the power system dominated by renewables which it would inherit.
Oil and Gas Exploration
The 2024 Labour manifesto pledged to ‘not issue new licences to explore new [oil and gas] fields’ in the North Sea. The Rosebank and Jackdaw fields were granted licences by the previous Conservative government, before this was challenged in court. Jackdaw was recently approved by the Labour government, on the basis that this did not technically breach their manifesto pledge. It is unclear whether it will approve Rosebank. The government may also allow new oil and gas drilling on or near to existing fields which do not require additional exploration licences.
However, under Andy Burnham, the government has maintained its commitment to not issuing new exploration licences for oil and gas.
The Conservatives and Reform UK have energetically opposed Labour’s policy on new licences and made it clear that, if they entered government, they would maximise production of oil and gas from the North Sea (as far as is possible in a declining basin).
There currently seems very little to prevent a future government issuing new licences once again, barring the potential that, in a few years’ time, the politics of the issue have shifted making it a less attractive option.
Long-Term Legacy
The government’s actions so far on clean power look potentially relatively durable. They have not involved an intricate strategy for targeting material benefits or shaping public opinion, but the government moved quickly during their early period in office to initiate the deployment of infrastructure which should prove relatively rooted. Their policy of not issuing new oil and gas licences looks more vulnerable to future policy changes.
Conclusion
Even allowing for Andy Burnham’s recent reduced emphasis on climate change, the current government has reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining and meeting the UK’s climate targets. Their rollout of renewable energy generation should prove relatively enduring.
Nonetheless, given Reform UK’s and the Conservative’s positions on climate change, the next UK general election (whenever it is) is currently looking like the most binary and consequential one ever for climate change mitigation. It could either mean substantial climate policy dismantling or further entrenchment of the transition to clean energy.
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